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“If the election is free and fair, Republicans will lose the House, and maybe the Senate,” a third person added. “Unpopular Presidents don’t hold their majorities in midterms, and Trump is historically unpopular. The important question is whether he’ll try to interfere with the election.”
One person attempted to defend the president and republicans. “Pass the SAVE America Act, or Republicans will lose the midterms to Democrat cheating with illegals,” one person stated.
MAGA in Panic
It comes as Republicans, and those closest to President Donald Trump, have started to slightly panic as the 2026 midterm elections are drawing ever closer due to a string of election losses. One GOP member told Axios that the Democratic Party is “fired up” after a string of local wins.
“While it is tempting for many in our party to wish away these results, the pattern is clear that there is at least a current 10-point Democratic over-performance from Trump 2024 — and it’s built on a fired-up Democratic base and a sleepy GOP base,” they said. According to the report, Democrats are currently outperforming former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 election results by double digits in multiple state-level races.
The report from Downballot adds that in 20 state-level special elections this year, Democrats have averaged almost 11 points ahead of Harris’ performance. This includes the stunning victory pulled off by Taylor Rehmet, who flipped a North Texas Senate seat that Trump carried by 17 points in 2024.
Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez’s 24-point win also shocked Republicans, after the president carried the district by 13 points two years ago. It reported that even some Republican strongholds are seeing some smaller margins as Trump enters his second year in office.
“Let’s not pretend a couple of low-turnout special elections suddenly signal a political earthquake,” Mason Di Palma of the Republican State Leadership Committee told Axios. “They are unique, low-turnout contests driven by highly localized factors.”
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